Q1 2025 Market News

Chaeeun Lee

Date: May 2, 2025


The first quarter of 2025 introduced significant macroeconomic and geopolitical complexities, marking a distinct shift from the optimism that characterized the start of the year. Initial expectations for continued AI breakthroughs, pro-growth deregulation, and strong economic momentum were quickly overshadowed by escalating trade policy uncertainty.


As the new administration prioritized broad-based and reciprocal tariffs, markets experienced a pronounced rotation. U.S. equities underwent a notable correction, fixed income markets benefited from a flight to quality, and international equities demonstrated notable outperformance.


While the volatility and looming April 2nd tariff implementations present valid concerns for investors, a deeper analysis of the underlying data reveals an economy that is decelerating but remains fundamentally resilient.


U.S. Equities

U.S. equity markets entered correction territory during the first quarter. Following a period where valuations traded roughly 1.5 standard deviations above their long-term average, the S&P 500 declined 4.27%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 10.26%. Notably, the mega-cap technology stocks that drove prior market gains declined nearly 15%.


Several key factors drove this shift

Trade Policy Headwinds: The administration’s aggressive tariff agenda, including 25% levies on imported vehicles and tariffs on key North American trading partners, weighed heavily on business spending and consumer confidence. The consumer discretionary sector was the weakest performer, falling 13.80%.

Technological Competition: China’s DeepSeek unveiled an ultra-efficient AI model, sparking concerns regarding U.S. technological dominance and accelerating the rotation away from large-cap U.S. technology equities.

A Shift to Defensive Positioning: Value stocks demonstrated resilience, outperforming growth stocks. Additionally, large-cap equities held up better than their small-cap counterparts.


International Markets

For investors maintaining globally diversified portfolios, the first quarter provided substantial benefits. Aided in part by depreciation in the U.S. dollar, international developed and emerging markets significantly outpaced their U.S. peers.


European Strength: The Eurozone proved to be a primary beneficiary of the global rotation. Cooling inflation prompted the European Central Bank to implement two rate cuts. This monetary easing, combined with Germany’s historic fiscal overhaul and a broad defense spending initiative, elevated the MSCI European Monetary Union Index to record highs.

Emerging Markets: Emerging markets recovered from a weak fourth quarter. The MSCI China index surged nearly 15%, catalyzed by the DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the government's renewed commitment to fiscal, monetary, and technological support.

Japanese Headwinds: Conversely, Japan's Nikkei reversed its strong 2024 performance, declining 10.08%. Japanese equities faced dual pressures from escalating U.S. trade tensions and a strengthening yen resulting from rising domestic interest rates.


Fixed Income and the Federal Reserve

As equity volatility increased, capital flowed steadily into the fixed income markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined 36 basis points to close the quarter at 4.21%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.89%. This downward pressure on yields boosted the broad U.S. bond market, returning 2.78% for the quarter. In response to the heightened policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate levels


Commodities and Alternatives

In the search for inflation hedges and portfolio protection, traditional commodities significantly outperformed digital assets:


Copper: Prices surged as businesses and traders accelerated purchases to front-run anticipated Q2 tariffs.

Gold: The precious metal reached all-time highs as central banks, particularly in emerging markets, increased reserves to hedge against geopolitical instability.

Bitcoin: Despite its historical positioning as a hedge against systemic risk, the cryptocurrency experienced elevated volatility and failed to protect capital during the quarter's market drawdowns.


Looking Ahead

A market correction and softer consumer confidence have raised recession concerns, but underlying economic data such as resilient retail sales and stable credit spreads, suggests no immediate severe downturn. While volatility may persist amid trade and tariff uncertainty, history shows these corrections tend to recover quickly, making diversification, high-quality assets, and international opportunities key areas of focus.

Q4 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: Feb 4, 2026 The final quarter of 2025 solidified the year as a triumph for the stock market. Despite the longest U.S. government shutdown in history of 43 days, a notable rise in unemployment, and record-low consumer sentiment, risk assets maintained their upward trajectory. A significant shift in market leadership characterized the period, as U.S. equities underperformed their international and Canadian counterparts. U.S. Equities U.S. markets slowed in the final months of the year. The 43-day government shutdown suspended critical economic reporting, leaving the Federal Reserve to navigate a "data-void" environment. Despite this, the Fed implemented its third straight 0.25% rate cut on December 10th, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75%. Concentration Risks : While the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the broader S&P 500, the Mag 7 began to lag the index as investors scrutinized the actual return on investment for massive AI capital expenditures. Valuation Concerns : The S&P 500 ended the year trading at 22.5x earnings, approaching dot-com bubble levels. However, proponents argue that current leaders have more established revenue models than their 2000s predecessors. Labor Market Cooling : The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level since late 2021 and signaling a shift in the Fed's priority from inflation to employment support. Canadian Equities The TSX Composite was the global standout in 2025. Defying early-year pessimism regarding trade wars, the index posted a massive 31.7% annual return. After four rate cuts in 2025, the Bank of Canada held its key rate steady at 2.25% in December, signaling a transition to a neutral stance. International & Emerging Markets For the first time in nearly a decade, international stocks significantly outpaced U.S. equities. Reinvigorated Europe : Southern Europe emerged as an unlikely leader. The European Central Bank's aggressive easing (8 cuts in 18 months) finally stabilized growth, with European stocks gaining 32% for the year. Japan’s Exit from Deflation : Japanese equities surpassed their 1989 peak as sustained wage growth and export strength finally broke the country's decades-long deflationary cycle. China's Pivot : China demonstrated resilience against U.S. trade policy by diversifying its export base. The U.S. now accounts for barely 10% of Chinese exports, with growth shifting toward Southeast Asia and Europe. Fixed Income The bond market saw a milestone in Q4 as the yield curve finally normalized. After two years of inversion, the curve returned to an upward-sloping shape, traditionally a signal of expected economic growth rather than imminent recession. Short and intermediate-term bonds outperformed long-duration assets, which remained sensitive to shifting 2026 rate-cut expectations. Corporate credit spreads remained near historical lows, implying that investors perceive minimal risk in corporate lending despite the broader geopolitical noise. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, the global investment landscape is shifting from a phase of speculative optimism to one of fundamental accountability. For U.S. equities, the narrative is changing rapidly: the market will move from rewarding massive AI spending to demanding tangible AI earnings, placing significant pressure on mega-cap valuations to justify their current premiums. While central banks in both the U.S. and Canada appear to be pivoting toward a neutral or easing stance, record-high U.S. fiscal debt and the mortgage renewal wave in Canada underscore the need for continued portfolio resilience. In this environment, the outperformance of international and emerging markets is expected to persist, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and more favorable valuation normalization, while gold remains a critical tactical hedge against ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.

Q3 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: October 30, 2025 Following the extreme volatility and subsequent recovery of the second quarter, Q3 rewarded investors with a string of new all-time highs. Better-than-expected corporate earnings further proved that companies are successfully navigating the disrupted global trade environment. However, beneath the surface of these record-breaking index levels, investor behavior remained surprisingly defensive. Capital continuously flowed toward mega-cap technology stocks and gold, highlighting a market that, while optimistic, remains highly cautious of lingering geopolitical and fiscal risks. U.S. Equities U.S. equities continued their powerful rally, but market breadth remains a glaring vulnerability. The S&P 500 rose 8.1% over the quarter, pushing its year-to-date return to 13.7%. However, this headline number masks a highly concentrated market. The Information Technology sector continued its absolute dominance, rising 11.7% in Q3. The market's engine has expanded slightly from the Magnificent Seven including Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor. Collectively, these mega-cap tech stocks are up an astounding 40% year-to-date and now make up over 35% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization. Notably, Nvidia made history in Q3 by becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion valuation. While these AI-adjacent stocks are delivering massive global growth, investors are increasingly treating them as defensive safe havens capable of weathering economic turbulence. This phenomenon is perfectly illustrated by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which is up only 6% year-to-date, less than half the return of the traditional cap-weighted index. International and Canadian Markets Outside the U.S., equities enjoyed strong positive momentum, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar and a broadening of global investment. Canadian Milestone : The TSX Composite was a standout performer, surging 12.5% in Q3. This massive run was heavily fueled by the Materials sector, specifically gold miners, which soared roughly 79% year-to-date. Strong showings in Financials and Information Technology further supported the index. Global Equities : International developed markets, measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, finished the quarter up 11% year-to-date. Emerging Markets also had a stellar quarter, gaining approximately 12% in Q3 as risk appetite returned to developing economies. Fixed Income and the Federal Reserve The defining macroeconomic event of Q3 was the highly anticipated pivot by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 17th, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, its first reduction since December 2024, bringing the upper bound to 4.25%. Crucially, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited early signs of a weakening labor market as the primary catalyst for the cut, signaling a notable shift in focus away from inflation. The Bank of Canada mirrored this dovish move on the same day, cutting its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 2.50% as Canadian employment data softened. While yields broadly fell over the quarter, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury saw some fluctuation, ending September at 4.15% as investors weighed long-term debt burdens against short-term rate cuts. Commodities and Alternatives Gold was the undisputed champion of the alternative asset space in Q3. The precious metal reached multiple new all-time highs, driven by declining real yields, currency market fluctuations, and persistent geopolitical friction in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. It serves as an additional reserve currency for global central banks and acting as the ultimate safe haven for retail and institutional investors alike. Looking Ahead As we enter the fourth quarter, investors face a complex balancing act. The bullish tailwinds of central bank rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings, and monumental AI capital spending are undeniable. However, the market is currently priced for perfection in a world that is anything but. Looming headwinds include the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, massive global fiscal imbalances, and a U.S. Supreme Court challenge regarding emergency tariff powers scheduled for early November. Furthermore, the extreme concentration of the U.S. stock market means that any stumble in the growth projections of large caps could trigger outsized volatility. In this environment, active management and strategic sector rotation will be critical. Trimming overextended tech positions and reallocating toward reasonably priced, dividend-growing value stocks could provide necessary ballast if economic data deteriorates further.

Q2 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: July 30, 2025 The second quarter of 2025 was defined by extreme volatility followed by a recovery. Markets began at a tough start with tariff announcements, temporarily pushing equities toward bear market territory. However, investor sentiment drastically shifted on April 9th when the administration announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most nations to allow for negotiations. Markets rallied with relief, climbing a wall of worry around geopolitical risks. This recovery was further bolstered by resilient labor data, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and the introduction of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which offered the prospect of near-term tax cuts and deregulation. While the ultimate economic impact of ongoing trade negotiations remains unknown, a deeper analysis of the quarter shows an economy capable of absorbing policy shocks, shifting focus back to fundamental growth and central bank monetary policy. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks rebounded aggressively in the second quarter after a challenging start. Following a rapid decline early in the quarter tied to tariff fears, the S&P 500 Index surged more than 25% from its April lows to finish the quarter up 10.94%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index posted an even sharper gain, surging 17.96%. Several key factors drove this shift: Trade Reprieve and Recovery : The 90-day pause on broad tariffs de-escalated immediate recessionary fears, triggering a massive relief rally. On April 9th alone, the S&P 500 posted its best day in over 17 years, rising more than 9%. Earnings Resiliency: First-quarter earnings heavily exceeded expectations, with S&P 500 companies reporting 12.7% year-over-year earnings growth, well ahead of the 7.2% expected at the start of the season. Technology Leadership Returns : Growth stocks outpaced value, and large-caps outperformed small-caps. Information Technology and Communication Services were the top-performing sectors, driven by continued investments in artificial intelligence. Conversely, Energy was the weakest sector. International Markets International developed and emerging markets once again outperformed their U.S. peers in the second quarter when measured in U.S. dollars. This was heavily driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, which fell relative to a basket of major currencies during Q2. European Easing : The Eurozone, represented by the MSCI European Monetary Union Index, rose 5.01% in local currency. Performance was supported by the European Central Bank, which cut interest rates twice during the quarter by a total of 50 basis points as inflation hit its 2% target. Japanese Rebound : After a steep drop in Q1, Japanese equities recovered powerfully. The Nikkei 225 gained 13.83% in local currency, aided by the Bank of Japan maintaining an accommodative stance (holding rates at 0.50%), which kept the yen weak and benefited exporters. Emerging Markets : The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 7.93% in local currency. China lagged its EM peers but still posted a positive 2.56% return, supported by the People’s Bank of China cutting interest rates and lowering bank reserve requirements amid ongoing, tough U.S. trade negotiations. Fixed Income and the Federal Reserve The fixed income market experienced elevated volatility but ultimately posted positive returns. Focus shifted away from monetary policy and toward fiscal policy risks, specifically concerns regarding debt sustainability tied to the OBBB Act. This dynamic caused the yield curve to steepen. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.23%, while the 2-year yield fell 18 basis points to 3.71%, widening the spread to 52 basis points. Credit markets remained strong, with investment-grade corporate bonds leading the segment as spreads narrowed. Municipal bonds, however, underperformed due to an influx of new supply and early-quarter political threats to their tax-exempt status. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained its wait-and-see stance, holding its benchmark rate steady. Commodities and Alternatives Commodity markets reacted dynamically to shifting supply metrics and ongoing geopolitical tensions: Gold: The precious metal continued its run as a premier safe-haven asset, remaining elevated as central banks maintained their purchasing pace amid global policy uncertainty. Gold is up approximately 25% year-to-date in Canadian dollar terms. Oil: Energy allocations saw renewed interest, with tactical overweight positions being reinitiated. This shift was driven by attractive pricing models and notable reductions in global oil inventories. Looking Ahead Despite the severe turbulence at the start of Q2, macroeconomic fundamentals remain largely stable. While U.S. Q1 GDP contracted by 0.5% due to a surge in front-run imports, the labor market remains highly resilient, adding 147,000 jobs in June with an unemployment rate of just 4.1%. Inflation is largely in check, with core PCE rising 2.7% and annual CPI at 2.4%. Moving into the second half of the year, investors should expect continued rate volatility and policy turbulence as the 90-day tariff pause expires and the full fiscal impact of the OBBB Act is measured. However, the Q2 recovery served as a potent reminder that market dislocations often present opportunities. Maintaining a disciplined approach to portfolio duration, managing concentration risk in mega-cap tech, and leaning into the valuation discounts offered by international markets will remain essential strategies for navigating the months ahead.