Q4 2025 Market News

Chaeeun Lee

Date: December 31, 2025


The final quarter of 2025 solidified the year as a historic triumph for the Canadian market. While the S&P 500 finished with a solid 17.9% return, the S&P/TSX Composite skyrocketed to a 32% gain, its best year in decades. TSX’s core exposures (Financials, Energy, and Materials) perfectly aligned with the macro environment.


Macro Indicators & Central Bank Policy

Normalization: The Fed ended the year at 3.50%–3.75%, achieving the elusive "Soft Landing." The BoC held steady at 2.25% in December, noting that the Canadian economy had returned to a neutral state.


Gold closed the year at an all-time high of $4,318/oz, a staggering 64% annual gain.


Security Performance & Sector Analysis

JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Led the U.S. financials as the dominant player in a revitalized M&A environment.


The "Big Five" Banks: Canadian banks surged as the BoC’s early easing allowed them to manage credit losses far better than the market had feared. Manulife (MFC) also saw significant gains due to its strong Asian exposure and rising equity markets.


Basic Materials: The sector was the undisputed winner on the TSX, with companies like Bausch Health (BHC) and Celestica (CLS) posting triple-digit gains, though the real "Alpha" came from the mid-cap gold and silver miners.

Q3 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: September 30, 2025 This quarter represented a fundamental shift in the global monetary regime. The Federal Reserve finally delivered its long-awaited pivot, cutting the fed funds rate by 50 bps in September. This "Jumbo" cut signaled that the Fed was now more concerned about a cooling labor market (unemployment hitting 4.6%) than lingering inflation. Macro Indicators & Central Bank Policy Bank of Canada: Moving aggressively, the BoC slashed rates to 2.50% by late September, officially entering a stimulative posture. Gold's Absolute Momentum: Gold decoupled from traditional real-rate correlations, surging past $3,900/oz by the end of September. This was driven by systemic concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and the continued weakening of the USD. Security Performance & Sector Analysis  Canadian Materials: Mining stocks like Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Endeavour Silver (EDR) saw massive inflows as the TSX Materials sector rose nearly 40% in the quarter. Energy: Despite the Fed pivot, energy stocks like TC Energy (TRP) outperformed as high-yield infrastructure plays became attractive in a falling-rate environment.

Q2 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: June 30, 2025 Q2 marked a dramatic reversal in sentiment following the "Geneva Truce," where the U.S. and key trading partners agreed to significant tariff exemptions for the technology and automotive sectors. This provided the green light for a massive relief rally, with the Nasdaq surge nearing 18% for the quarter alone. Macro Indicators & Central Bank Policy U.S. Dollar Weakness: As the threat of a full-scale trade war receded, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) began to soften. This currency shift provided a massive tailwind for international earnings. The Fed’s "Dovish Tilt": While the Fed held rates steady, the June meeting minutes signaled that cuts were "appropriate" in the near term. 10-year Treasury yields responded by sliding to 4.1%, igniting a rally in long-duration stocks. Security Performance & Sector Analysis Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META) were the standout performers this quarter, benefiting from robust digital ad spend. Shopify (SHOP): In Canada, Shopify saw a significant recovery as lower interest rate expectations in the U.S. improved the outlook for e-commerce multiples. Financials: Canadian banks like Royal Bank (RY) and TD Bank (TD) began to stabilize as the Bank of Canada’s continued easing (now at 4.70%) signaled that the "worst was over" for the mortgage renewal cycle.

Q1 2025 Market News

by Chaeeun Lee • 24 March 2026
Date: March 31, 2025 The first quarter of 2025 was characterized by a sharp return of the "Geopolitical Risk Premium." The primary catalyst was the U.S. administration's swift invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose a broad 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican goods. This move immediately disrupted integrated supply chains, forcing a violent re-rating of high-beta growth stocks that rely on global components. Macro Indicators & Central Bank Policy Bank of Canada (BoC): Recognizing that the Canadian economy is more sensitive to trade headwinds and debt service ratios, Governor Macklem broke from the Fed, cutting the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.95%. This move initially weakened the CAD to $0.71 USD, acting as a competitive cushion for exporters. U.S. Federal Reserve: The Fed maintained a "Higher for Longer" stance at 5.25%–5.50%, concerned that tariffs would lead to "cost-push" inflation. Security Performance & Sector Analysis Tech Sell-off: Mega-cap leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) saw double-digit drawdowns as investors priced in higher manufacturing costs.  Canadian Resilience: Surprisingly, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Suncor (SU) outperformed the broad TSX, as energy was initially carved out of the harshest tariff rhetoric. Safe Havens: Gold began its historic 2025 rally, closing the quarter near $3,000/oz as institutional investors fled to hard assets.